Week 5 is in the books. Drake Maye (QB, NE) put up 39.5 PPR points, the biggest line of the week, 1.8 ahead of Jahmyr Gibbs. Through Week 5 the value leaders are Josh Allen at quarterback, Jahmyr Gibbs at running back, Jaxon Smith-Njigba at receiver and Brock Bowers at tight end.
Below: the week's scoreboard, the season leaders by value over replacement, where each position's cliff sits, who is scoring above or below his usage, who is rising and falling and who you can set and forget.
The Week 5 scoreboard
The top 12 in Week 5: 4 quarterbacks, 3 running backs, 4 receivers and 1 tight end. 18 players cleared 25 points. The line to make this list was 28.9. Top of each position: QB Drake Maye (39.5), RB Jahmyr Gibbs (37.7), WR Puka Nacua (37.7) and TE Isaiah Likely (32.4).
Week 5 scoreboard
Top 12 PPR scores
Leaders through Week 5
Josh Allen leads quarterbacks at +10.6 points a game above replacement (28.6 a game over 5 games), 5.3 clear of Brock Purdy. Jahmyr Gibbs leads running backs at +20.5 points a game above replacement (30.7 a game over 5 games), 3.2 clear of Kenneth Walker III. Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads receivers at +17.5 points a game above replacement (27.9 a game over 5 games), ahead of Puka Nacua by 2.0. Brock Bowers leads tight ends at +12.1 points a game above replacement (23.7 a game over 3 games), 5.6 clear of Trey McBride.
Pos | Player | Team | PPG | VORP / game | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QB | Josh Allen | BUF | 28.6 | +10.6 | 5 |
QB | Brock Purdy | SF | 23.3 | +5.3 | 5 |
QB | Jared Goff | DET | 23.0 | +5.0 | 5 |
RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | 30.7 | +20.5 | 5 |
RB | Kenneth Walker III | KC | 27.5 | +17.3 | 4 |
RB | Bijan Robinson | ATL | 24.2 | +14.0 | 5 |
WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | 27.9 | +17.5 | 5 |
WR | Puka Nacua | LA | 25.9 | +15.6 | 3 |
WR | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | 23.0 | +12.7 | 5 |
TE | Brock Bowers | LV | 23.7 | +12.1 | 3 |
TE | Trey McBride | ARI | 18.2 | +6.6 | 5 |
TE | Isaiah Likely | NYG | 17.1 | +5.5 | 5 |
Value over replacement is points per game above the last startable player at the position, from actual game logs in PPR scoring.
Where the value cliffs are
Replacement level, the last startable player at each position, sits at 18.0 PPR points a game at quarterback, 10.3 at running back, 10.4 at receiver and 11.6 at tight end. The elite separate most at running back: Jahmyr Gibbs is 20.5 a game above that line, more than any other position's leader. The steepest cliff is at tight end: from Brock Bowers at +12.1 (TE1) to Trey McBride at +6.6 (TE2), a drop of 5.6 points a game. That is the tier line to draft or trade around.
Pos | Replacement (pts / game) | Leader (VORP / game) | Steepest drop (top 12) |
|---|---|---|---|
QB | 18.0 | Josh Allen (+10.6) | QB1 → QB2 (−5.3) |
RB | 10.3 | Jahmyr Gibbs (+20.5) | RB2 → RB3 (−3.3) |
WR | 10.4 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+17.5) | WR2 → WR3 (−2.9) |
TE | 11.6 | Brock Bowers (+12.1) | TE1 → TE2 (−5.6) |
Scoring above and below the usage
Over a season, scoring drifts back toward usage: the players furthest above their expected points tend to cool off, and the ones furthest below tend to catch up.
Running hot: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, SEA) is scoring 9.9 points a game above what his usage says (17.9 expected, 27.8 actual); Zay Flowers (WR, BAL) is scoring 7.1 points a game above what his usage says (13.4 expected, 20.5 actual); Christian Watson (WR, GB) is scoring 6.5 points a game above what his usage says (15.4 expected, 21.9 actual).
Owed points: Cooper Rush (QB, ATL) is scoring 6.7 points a game below what his usage says (9.3 expected, 2.6 actual); Justin Herbert (QB, LAC) is scoring 6.5 points a game below what his usage says (17.3 expected, 10.7 actual); Tyson Bagent (QB, CHI) is scoring 6.0 points a game below what his usage says (10.1 expected, 4.1 actual).
Expected vs actual fantasy points per game
The 50 most-fed players through Week 5
Hover a dot for the full read-out, or click to pin it. Focus the chart and use arrow keys to step through.
- Jahmyr Gibbs (DET · 5 games): Expected FP / game 29.2, Actual FP / game 30.6.
- Puka Nacua (LA · 3 games): Expected FP / game 28.2, Actual FP / game 25.9.
- Kenneth Walker III (KC · 4 games): Expected FP / game 24.8, Actual FP / game 27.5.
- Josh Allen (BUF · 5 games): Expected FP / game 24.7, Actual FP / game 28.6.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET · 5 games): Expected FP / game 23.1, Actual FP / game 20.8.
- Caleb Williams (CHI · 2 games): Expected FP / game 22.6, Actual FP / game 22.5.
- Lamar Jackson (BAL · 4 games): Expected FP / game 22.2, Actual FP / game 19.8.
- Bryce Young (CAR · 4 games): Expected FP / game 21.9, Actual FP / game 22.7.
- Drake Maye (NE · 5 games): Expected FP / game 21.8, Actual FP / game 17.4.
- Matthew Stafford (LA · 5 games): Expected FP / game 21.6, Actual FP / game 17.8.
- Jayden Daniels (WAS · 3 games): Expected FP / game 21.6, Actual FP / game 21.6.
- C.J. Stroud (HOU · 5 games): Expected FP / game 21.1, Actual FP / game 17.8.
- Ashton Jeanty (LV · 5 games): Expected FP / game 21, Actual FP / game 16.9.
- Dak Prescott (DAL · 5 games): Expected FP / game 20.6, Actual FP / game 18.8.
- Bijan Robinson (ATL · 5 games): Expected FP / game 20.5, Actual FP / game 24.2.
- Jared Goff (DET · 5 games): Expected FP / game 20.3, Actual FP / game 23.
- Brock Purdy (SF · 5 games): Expected FP / game 20.2, Actual FP / game 23.3.
- Derrick Henry (BAL · 5 games): Expected FP / game 20.2, Actual FP / game 22.4.
- Kyren Williams (LA · 5 games): Expected FP / game 20.2, Actual FP / game 21.9.
- Jonathan Taylor (IND · 5 games): Expected FP / game 19.8, Actual FP / game 19.5.
- Brock Bowers (LV · 3 games): Expected FP / game 19.8, Actual FP / game 23.7.
- Joe Burrow (CIN · 5 games): Expected FP / game 19.7, Actual FP / game 20.2.
- Tyler Shough (NO · 5 games): Expected FP / game 19.7, Actual FP / game 17.
- CeeDee Lamb (DAL · 5 games): Expected FP / game 19.4, Actual FP / game 23.
- Deshaun Watson (CLE · 5 games): Expected FP / game 19.1, Actual FP / game 15.8.
- Patrick Mahomes (KC · 4 games): Expected FP / game 19, Actual FP / game 20.9.
- Trey McBride (ARI · 5 games): Expected FP / game 18.9, Actual FP / game 18.2.
- Jordan Love (GB · 5 games): Expected FP / game 18.7, Actual FP / game 18.
- Chris Olave (NO · 5 games): Expected FP / game 18.6, Actual FP / game 19.7.
- Christian McCaffrey (SF · 5 games): Expected FP / game 18.5, Actual FP / game 18.3.
- Javonte Williams (DAL · 5 games): Expected FP / game 18.5, Actual FP / game 19.2.
- Tetairoa McMillan (CAR · 4 games): Expected FP / game 18.3, Actual FP / game 18.6.
- D'Andre Swift (CHI · 5 games): Expected FP / game 18, Actual FP / game 16.2.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA · 5 games): Expected FP / game 17.9, Actual FP / game 27.8.
- Michael Wilson (ARI · 5 games): Expected FP / game 17.6, Actual FP / game 12.8.
- Trevor Lawrence (JAX · 5 games): Expected FP / game 17.6, Actual FP / game 17.4.
- Malik Willis (MIA · 5 games): Expected FP / game 17.6, Actual FP / game 12.1.
- Justin Herbert (LAC · 5 games): Expected FP / game 17.3, Actual FP / game 10.7.
- Baker Mayfield (TB · 3 games): Expected FP / game 17.3, Actual FP / game 11.7.
- Aaron Rodgers (PIT · 5 games): Expected FP / game 17, Actual FP / game 16.6.
- Davante Adams (LA · 5 games): Expected FP / game 16.9, Actual FP / game 19.
- Jacoby Brissett (ARI · 5 games): Expected FP / game 16.9, Actual FP / game 16.9.
- Kirk Cousins (LV · 5 games): Expected FP / game 16.8, Actual FP / game 18.5.
- Nico Collins (HOU · 3 games): Expected FP / game 16.5, Actual FP / game 20.9.
- Michael Penix Jr. (ATL · 3 games): Expected FP / game 16.2, Actual FP / game 13.7.
- Chase Brown (CIN · 5 games): Expected FP / game 16.1, Actual FP / game 13.
- Matthew Golden (GB · 5 games): Expected FP / game 16.1, Actual FP / game 15.7.
- Jalen Hurts (PHI · 5 games): Expected FP / game 16, Actual FP / game 16.
- Geno Smith (NYJ · 5 games): Expected FP / game 15.9, Actual FP / game 13.9.
- Isaiah Likely (NYG · 5 games): Expected FP / game 15.8, Actual FP / game 17.1.
Expected fantasy points are what a player’s targets, carries and situations would score for a league-average player. Below the line is scoring under the usage; above it is running hot.
Rising and falling
Comparing the last two weeks with the season average, Drake Maye is the biggest riser at 32.9 a game against a 17.5 average (+15.4), and Jaxon Smith-Njigba the biggest faller at 17.7 against 27.9 (−10.2). Two weeks is a lean, not a verdict; check the usage before you act on it.
Rising
Player | Last 2 | Season | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
Drake Maye QB · NE | 32.9 | 17.5 | +15.4 |
Malik Nabers WR · NYG | 26.1 | 14.8 | +11.4 |
Emanuel Wilson RB · SEA | 20.1 | 10.2 | +9.9 |
Jameis Winston QB · NYG | 21.9 | 13.1 | +8.8 |
Darius Cooper WR · PHI | 16.7 | 8.8 | +7.9 |
Falling
Player | Last 2 | Season | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA | 17.7 | 27.9 | −10.2 |
Tyler Shough QB · NO | 7.9 | 17.0 | −9.2 |
Jalen Coker WR · CAR | 9.2 | 17.4 | −8.2 |
Kalif Raymond WR · CHI | 3.0 | 10.5 | −7.5 |
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET | 14.2 | 20.8 | −6.6 |
Set-and-forget, and swing plays
Among starters averaging 10 or more, Kyren Williams, Jayden Daniels and Tyler Shough bust the least, and Zay Flowers, Brock Purdy and Jared Goff boom the most. Floor and ceiling are a bad week and a big week from the actual scores, not a projection.
Rarely bust
Player | PPG | Boom | Bust | Floor | Ceiling |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kyren Williams RB · LA | 21.9 | 20% | 0% | 15.5 | 36.7 |
Jayden Daniels QB · WAS | 21.6 | 33% | 0% | 14.7 | 32.3 |
Tyler Shough QB · NO | 17.0 | 0% | 0% | -0.2 | 23.8 |
Boom or bust
Player | PPG | Boom | Bust | Floor | Ceiling |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zay Flowers WR · BAL | 20.4 | 50% | 50% | 14.6 | 26.0 |
Brock Purdy QB · SF | 23.3 | 40% | 20% | 16.2 | 31.3 |
Jared Goff QB · DET | 23.0 | 40% | 20% | 16.4 | 29.8 |
Use it
Rank across positions on one scale with the VORP board, and reach for the position whose cliff comes first.
Buy the players scoring under their usage and sell the ones running hot on the expected points board.
Put any two to four players side by side, week by week, in Deep Research.
Every chart here lives on the analytics dashboard, filtered by season, scoring and position.