Generated draft. Built from the Week 7 analytics refresh on Oct 28, 7:01 AM ET. Every number is from the game logs and the boards; the words are a starting point. Cut what does not earn its place, add what the numbers cannot see, and delete this note before publishing.
Week 7 is in the books. Tony Pollard (RB, TEN) put up 36.5 PPR points, the biggest line of the week, 5.2 clear of Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Through Week 7 the value leaders are Josh Allen at quarterback, Jahmyr Gibbs at running back, Jaxon Smith-Njigba at receiver and Brock Bowers at tight end.
Below: the week's scoreboard, the season leaders by value over replacement, where each position's cliff sits, who is scoring above or below his usage, who is rising and falling and who you can set and forget.
The Week 7 scoreboard
The top 12 in Week 7: 4 quarterbacks, 1 running back, 5 receivers and 2 tight ends. Eleven players cleared 25 points. The line to make this list was 24.4. Top of each position: QB Joe Burrow (28.9), RB Tony Pollard (36.5), WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (31.3) and TE Trey McBride (27.1).
Week 7 scoreboard
Top 12 PPR scores
Leaders through Week 7
Josh Allen leads quarterbacks at +8.5 points a game above replacement (26.9 a game over 6 games), 4.7 clear of Jared Goff. Jahmyr Gibbs leads running backs at +16.8 points a game above replacement (28.5 a game over 6 games), 3.9 clear of Kenneth Walker III. Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads receivers at +17.0 points a game above replacement (28.0 a game over 7 games), 5.3 clear of Puka Nacua. Brock Bowers leads tight ends at +9.0 points a game above replacement (19.1 a game over 5 games), ahead of Trey McBride by 0.5.
Pos | Player | Team | PPG | VORP / game | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QB | Josh Allen | BUF | 26.9 | +8.5 | 6 |
QB | Jared Goff | DET | 22.2 | +3.8 | 6 |
QB | Joe Burrow | CIN | 21.7 | +3.3 | 6 |
RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | 28.5 | +16.8 | 6 |
RB | Kenneth Walker III | KC | 24.6 | +12.9 | 6 |
RB | Bijan Robinson | ATL | 20.8 | +9.1 | 7 |
WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | 28.0 | +17.0 | 7 |
WR | Puka Nacua | LA | 22.7 | +11.7 | 5 |
WR | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | 22.2 | +11.2 | 7 |
TE | Brock Bowers | LV | 19.1 | +9.0 | 5 |
TE | Trey McBride | ARI | 18.6 | +8.5 | 7 |
TE | Isaiah Likely | NYG | 16.1 | +6.0 | 7 |
Value over replacement is points per game above the last startable player at the position, from actual game logs in PPR scoring.
Where the value cliffs are
Replacement level, the last startable player at each position, sits at 18.4 PPR points a game at quarterback, 11.7 at running back, 11.0 at receiver and 10.1 at tight end. The elite separate most at receiver: Jaxon Smith-Njigba is 17.0 a game above that line, more than any other position's leader. The steepest cliff is at receiver: from Jaxon Smith-Njigba at +17.0 (WR1) to Puka Nacua at +11.7 (WR2), a drop of 5.3 points a game. That is the tier line to draft or trade around.
Pos | Replacement (pts / game) | Leader (VORP / game) | Steepest drop (top 12) |
|---|---|---|---|
QB | 18.4 | Josh Allen (+8.5) | QB1 → QB2 (−4.7) |
RB | 11.7 | Jahmyr Gibbs (+16.8) | RB1 → RB2 (−3.9) |
WR | 11.0 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+17.0) | WR1 → WR2 (−5.3) |
TE | 10.1 | Brock Bowers (+9.0) | TE2 → TE3 (−2.5) |
Scoring above and below the usage
Over a season, scoring drifts back toward usage: the players furthest above their expected points tend to cool off, and the ones furthest below tend to catch up.
Running hot: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, SEA) is scoring 8.5 points a game above what his usage says (19.5 expected, 27.9 actual); Zay Flowers (WR, BAL) is scoring 5.8 points a game above what his usage says (14.5 expected, 20.4 actual); Josh Allen (QB, BUF) is scoring 3.7 points a game above what his usage says (23.2 expected, 26.9 actual).
Owed points: Justin Herbert (QB, LAC) is scoring 6.8 points a game below what his usage says (17.2 expected, 10.4 actual); Cooper Rush (QB, ATL) is scoring 6.6 points a game below what his usage says (9.2 expected, 2.6 actual); Tyson Bagent (QB, CHI) is scoring 5.9 points a game below what his usage says (10.0 expected, 4.1 actual).
Expected vs actual fantasy points per game
The 50 most-fed players through Week 7
Hover a dot for the full read-out, or click to pin it. Focus the chart and use arrow keys to step through.
- Jahmyr Gibbs (DET · 6 games): Expected FP / game 28.7, Actual FP / game 28.4.
- Josh Allen (BUF · 6 games): Expected FP / game 23.2, Actual FP / game 26.9.
- Puka Nacua (LA · 5 games): Expected FP / game 23.2, Actual FP / game 22.7.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET · 6 games): Expected FP / game 22.9, Actual FP / game 21.4.
- Kenneth Walker III (KC · 6 games): Expected FP / game 22.9, Actual FP / game 24.6.
- Caleb Williams (CHI · 4 games): Expected FP / game 22.2, Actual FP / game 20.9.
- CeeDee Lamb (DAL · 7 games): Expected FP / game 22, Actual FP / game 22.2.
- Lamar Jackson (BAL · 4 games): Expected FP / game 21.9, Actual FP / game 19.8.
- Drake Maye (NE · 7 games): Expected FP / game 21.8, Actual FP / game 19.8.
- Jayden Daniels (WAS · 4 games): Expected FP / game 21.4, Actual FP / game 21.4.
- Christian McCaffrey (SF · 7 games): Expected FP / game 20.8, Actual FP / game 20.6.
- Ashton Jeanty (LV · 7 games): Expected FP / game 20.6, Actual FP / game 17.4.
- Brock Purdy (SF · 7 games): Expected FP / game 20.3, Actual FP / game 20.9.
- Jared Goff (DET · 6 games): Expected FP / game 20.1, Actual FP / game 22.2.
- Joe Burrow (CIN · 6 games): Expected FP / game 19.8, Actual FP / game 21.7.
- Bryce Young (CAR · 6 games): Expected FP / game 19.8, Actual FP / game 19.3.
- C.J. Stroud (HOU · 7 games): Expected FP / game 19.5, Actual FP / game 18.4.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA · 7 games): Expected FP / game 19.5, Actual FP / game 27.9.
- Dak Prescott (DAL · 7 games): Expected FP / game 19.4, Actual FP / game 18.3.
- Matthew Golden (GB · 7 games): Expected FP / game 19.3, Actual FP / game 15.8.
- Matthew Stafford (LA · 7 games): Expected FP / game 19.2, Actual FP / game 17.6.
- Trey McBride (ARI · 7 games): Expected FP / game 19.1, Actual FP / game 18.6.
- Deshaun Watson (CLE · 7 games): Expected FP / game 19.1, Actual FP / game 15.3.
- Jonathan Taylor (IND · 7 games): Expected FP / game 19, Actual FP / game 19.6.
- D'Andre Swift (CHI · 7 games): Expected FP / game 18.9, Actual FP / game 17.5.
- Tyler Shough (NO · 7 games): Expected FP / game 18.9, Actual FP / game 18.
- Jordan Love (GB · 7 games): Expected FP / game 18.7, Actual FP / game 18.2.
- Derrick Henry (BAL · 7 games): Expected FP / game 18.6, Actual FP / game 17.5.
- Kyren Williams (LA · 7 games): Expected FP / game 18.5, Actual FP / game 19.6.
- Brock Bowers (LV · 5 games): Expected FP / game 18.4, Actual FP / game 19.1.
- Trevor Lawrence (JAX · 6 games): Expected FP / game 18.2, Actual FP / game 19.
- Patrick Mahomes (KC · 6 games): Expected FP / game 18.2, Actual FP / game 16.7.
- Bijan Robinson (ATL · 7 games): Expected FP / game 18.1, Actual FP / game 20.6.
- Kirk Cousins (LV · 7 games): Expected FP / game 17.8, Actual FP / game 18.8.
- Malik Willis (MIA · 6 games): Expected FP / game 17.8, Actual FP / game 14.4.
- Chris Olave (NO · 7 games): Expected FP / game 17.4, Actual FP / game 17.8.
- Michael Wilson (ARI · 7 games): Expected FP / game 17.3, Actual FP / game 11.7.
- Justin Herbert (LAC · 6 games): Expected FP / game 17.2, Actual FP / game 10.4.
- Javonte Williams (DAL · 7 games): Expected FP / game 17.1, Actual FP / game 18.6.
- Malik Nabers (NYG · 7 games): Expected FP / game 17.1, Actual FP / game 17.2.
- Jacoby Brissett (ARI · 7 games): Expected FP / game 17, Actual FP / game 15.4.
- Aaron Rodgers (PIT · 7 games): Expected FP / game 16.6, Actual FP / game 16.
- Tetairoa McMillan (CAR · 6 games): Expected FP / game 16.4, Actual FP / game 16.2.
- DeVonta Smith (PHI · 4 games): Expected FP / game 16.4, Actual FP / game 17.2.
- Geno Smith (NYJ · 7 games): Expected FP / game 16.3, Actual FP / game 15.
- Jalen Hurts (PHI · 5 games): Expected FP / game 15.9, Actual FP / game 16.
- James Cook (BUF · 6 games): Expected FP / game 15.7, Actual FP / game 18.9.
- Sam Darnold (SEA · 6 games): Expected FP / game 15.6, Actual FP / game 12.5.
- Christian Watson (GB · 7 games): Expected FP / game 15.5, Actual FP / game 18.5.
- Chase Brown (CIN · 6 games): Expected FP / game 15.5, Actual FP / game 12.5.
Expected fantasy points are what a player’s targets, carries and situations would score for a league-average player. Below the line is scoring under the usage; above it is running hot.
Rising and falling
Comparing the last two weeks with the season average, Colston Loveland is the biggest riser at 19.2 a game against a 8.9 average (+10.3), and Derrick Henry the biggest faller at 5.5 against 17.5 (−12.1). Two weeks is a lean, not a verdict; check the usage before you act on it.
Rising
Player | Last 2 | Season | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
Colston Loveland TE · CHI | 19.2 | 8.9 | +10.3 |
Tre Tucker WR · LV | 24.0 | 14.3 | +9.7 |
Tony Pollard RB · TEN | 22.1 | 12.5 | +9.5 |
Kyle Pitts TE · ATL | 18.1 | 9.0 | +9.1 |
Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB · NYG | 13.6 | 4.6 | +9.0 |
Falling
Player | Last 2 | Season | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
Derrick Henry RB · BAL | 5.5 | 17.5 | −12.1 |
Bijan Robinson RB · ATL | 12.3 | 20.8 | −8.6 |
Nico Collins WR · HOU | 6.8 | 15.2 | −8.5 |
Christian Watson WR · GB | 10.1 | 18.5 | −8.4 |
Patrick Mahomes QB · KC | 8.3 | 16.7 | −8.4 |
Set-and-forget, and swing plays
Among starters averaging 10 or more, Tyler Shough, Jalen Hurts and Tony Pollard bust the least, and Zay Flowers, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Golden boom the most. Floor and ceiling are a bad week and a big week from the actual scores, not a projection.
Rarely bust
Player | PPG | Boom | Bust | Floor | Ceiling |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tyler Shough QB · NO | 18.0 | 14% | 0% | -0.2 | 27.0 |
Jalen Hurts QB · PHI | 16.0 | 20% | 0% | 12.6 | 24.7 |
Tony Pollard RB · TEN | 12.5 | 14% | 0% | 4.4 | 36.5 |
Boom or bust
Player | PPG | Boom | Bust | Floor | Ceiling |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zay Flowers WR · BAL | 20.4 | 50% | 33% | 12.7 | 27.7 |
Aaron Rodgers QB · PIT | 16.0 | 43% | 14% | 4.0 | 22.7 |
Matthew Golden WR · GB | 15.8 | 43% | 29% | 9.8 | 22.4 |
Use it
Rank across positions on one scale with the VORP board, and reach for the position whose cliff comes first.
Buy the players scoring under their usage and sell the ones running hot on the expected points board.
Put any two to four players side by side, week by week, in Deep Research.
Every chart here lives on the analytics dashboard, filtered by season, scoring and position.