Welcome to Football
Football is back. It's Week 1, nobody has a snap count or a target share yet. Players have moved. Coaches have moved. Depth charts have shuffled. Injuries have happend. How do we make our start/sit? At Foundry, we're using the projections of our model while taking an educated swing on role and matchup.
The list below consists of upside plays, not must-starts. Each player below has a specific reason to outscore where he is usually drafted or ranked: a vacated role, a soft defense, a new play-caller or a game expected to produce points. If you would start him against anyone, he is not on this list.
Player | Game | Kickoff (ET) | The case |
|---|---|---|---|
TEN vs. NYJ | 1:00 PM | Reunited with Brian Daboll against last year's worst pass defense | |
David Montgomery, RB | HOU vs. BUF | 1:00 PM | Lead back against a run defense that ranked 31st. While the Bills have a new DC, Houston will test him. |
Khalil Shakir, WR | BUF at HOU | 1:00 PM | Underneath volume while Houston's coverage focuses on DJ Moore. Shakir is very rarely a safe start, but I'd take a swing if lacking WR depth. |
CHI at CAR | 1:00 PM | Rome Odunze's calf, and a Bears offense projected for about 25 points | |
Emeka Egbuka, WR | TB at CIN | 1:00 PM | Highest over/under of the week, and Jalen McMillan is doubtful |
Kenneth Gainwell, RB | TB at CIN | 1:00 PM | Pass-catching back in the same game, facing the defense that allowed the most rushing yards last year |
Michael Mayer, TE | LV vs. MIA | 4:25 PM | Brock Bowers is out |
MarShawn Lloyd, RB | GB at MIN | 4:25 PM | Josh Jacobs is out and Lloyd tops the depth chart |
Omarion Hampton, RB | LAC vs. ARI | 4:25 PM | Highest projected team total of the week, and a big favorite of ours |
Dontayvion Wicks, WR | PHI vs. WAS | 4:25 PM | The No. 2 receiver in Philadelphia, against the 30th-ranked pass defense in 2025. |
Isaiah Likely, TE | NYG vs. DAL | 8:20 PM | John Harbaugh's tight end, against the 31st-ranked pass defense in 2025. |
The four we like most
Wan'Dale Robinson, WR, Titans vs. Jets
Brian Daboll now calls plays in Tennessee, and Robinson is there with him. Robinson spent four seasons in Daboll's Giants offense and is coming off the best year of his career: 140 targets, 92 catches, 1,014 yards and four touchdowns in 2025. That target total was 27.8% of the Giants' passing game.
The matchup is nice as well. The Jets allowed the most EPA per dropback in the league last season. A receiver who knows the playbook, draws targets at that rate and faces the worst pass defense from 2025 is exactly the profile we want in Week 1.
Two things to be aware of: this game has the lowest over/under on the Week 1 slate (38.5), with Tennessee projected for about 20 points, so touchdowns may be scarce. And the Titans' depth chart lists rookie Carnell Tate first. Robinson's value is catches, not scores, which makes him a stronger play in full-PPR leagues.
Foundry read: A WR3 with WR2 upside in PPR. We trust the 140-target history with this play-caller more than the depth chart order.
David Montgomery, RB, Texans vs. Bills
Houston's depth chart lists Monty ahead of Woody Marks, and the Bills are the defense you want him to meet first. Buffalo ranked 31st in EPA allowed per carry last season, gave up 136.2 rushing yards per game (fifth-most) and allowed 5.14 yards per carry.
Buffalo has a new defensive coordinator, so some of that could change. But a new play-caller rarely fixes a run defense overnight, and Montgomery was efficient even in a shared role in Detroit last year: 158 carries for 716 yards (4.5 per carry) and eight touchdowns. For comparison, Marks ran 196 times for 703 yards (3.6 per carry) in Houston. He's bad.
The Bills are 1.5-point road favorites in a game with a 44.5 over/under, so Houston should not be forced to abandon the run unless Allen torches their defense.
Foundry read: An RB2 with goal-line upside. If you drafted him as a flex, start him.
Khalil Shakir, WR, Bills at Texans
Buffalo added DJ Moore this offseason, and we expect Houston's best coverage to follow him. That leaves the short middle of the field to Shakir, who already lives there. In 2025 his average target traveled just 3.7 yards downfield, he caught 76% of his targets, and he averaged 7.5 yards after the catch per reception on the way to 72 catches.
Be clear-eyed about the matchup: Houston had the best pass defense in football last season by EPA per dropback. This is not a ceiling play. It is a volume play for PPR leagues, where 6 or 7 catches for 60 yards is a useful Week 1.
Foundry read: A safe PPR flex, not a ceiling play. Drop him a tier in standard scoring.
Luther Burden III, WR, Bears at Panthers
Rome Odunze is listed as questionable with a calf injury. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports he is expected to play, so plan on Odunze being active. A calf injury can still limit a receiver's snaps, and Burden, listed right behind him on the depth chart, is the first in line for any snaps Odunze doesn't play.
Burden made the most of limited work as a rookie: 47 catches on 60 targets (78%) for 652 yards, with 7.1 yards after the catch per reception. Carolina ranked 24th against the pass last year, and Chicago is a 3-point road favorite projected for about 25 points, one of the higher team totals of the week.
Foundry read: A flex with upside even if Odunze plays.
Seven more upside plays
Emeka Egbuka, WR, Buccaneers at Bengals
Tampa Bay at Cincinnati has the highest over/under on the board (50.5), and the Bengals ranked 28th in EPA allowed per dropback last season. Jalen McMillan is doubtful with a knee injury, which concentrates the Buccaneers' receiving work further. Egbuka drew 127 targets as a rookie (23.5% of the team's total) with an average depth of 12.4 yards, and he turned them into 938 yards and six scores. Our weekly projection board has him at WR13 this week.
Foundry read: Start him as a WR2 in the week's highest-scoring projected game.
Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Buccaneers at Bengals
Same game, different angle. Sean Tucker is doubtful with a hamstring injury, which leaves Gainwell as the clear complement to Bucky Irving. Gainwell was a genuine PPR asset in Pittsburgh last season: 73 catches on 85 targets for 486 yards, plus 537 rushing yards and eight total touchdowns. Cincinnati allowed the most rushing yards per game in the league in 2025 (147.1) at 5.22 yards per carry.
Foundry read: A PPR flex in the week's highest-scoring projected game. His receiving role keeps his floor steady even when Irving handles the early downs.
Michael Mayer, TE, Raiders vs. Dolphins
Raiders coach Klint Kubiak confirmed Friday that Brock Bowers (knee) will not play. Bowers averaged more than seven targets per game last season, and Mayer is next on the depth chart. Mayer caught 70% of his 50 targets in 2025 and averaged 5.6 yards after the catch per reception. Miami ranked 26th against the pass, and Las Vegas is a 3-point home favorite.
Foundry read: The best tight-end streamer of the week. Some of Bowers' targets go to the receivers, but Mayer inherits the role.
MarShawn Lloyd, RB, Packers at Vikings
Josh Jacobs is out for personal reasons. Jacobs handled 234 carries and 44 targets in 15 games last year, about 18 opportunities per game, and Lloyd is listed first on the depth chart ahead of Chris Brooks and Kaleb Johnson.
This is a pure volume bet. Lloyd has appeared in one regular-season game over his first two seasons, and Minnesota's run defense ranked seventh in EPA allowed per carry last year, allowing under 4.0 yards per carry. The work is what you're paying for.
Foundry read: A flex for managers who need a running back. Expect a wide range of outcomes and a lot of carries.
Omarion Hampton, RB, Chargers vs. Cardinals
The Chargers are 9.5-point home favorites with a projected team total of 28.5, the highest of Week 1. Big favorites run the ball late, and Arizona allowed 126.9 rushing yards per game last year (eighth-most). Hampton handled 124 carries and 32 catches in nine games as a rookie. Our weekly board ranks him RB4 this week.
Foundry read: A top-five back this week in our projections. Start him with confidence.
Dontayvion Wicks, WR, Eagles vs. Commanders
With A.J. Brown now in New England, Wicks is listed next to DeVonta Smith atop the Eagles' receiver depth chart. Washington ranked 30th in EPA allowed per dropback last season, and Philadelphia is a 6-point home favorite projected for about 25 points. Wicks is a downfield option (11.2-yard average target depth in Green Bay last year), so this is a big-play bet.
Foundry read: A deep-league dart or best-ball-style swing. One long touchdown makes his week.
Isaiah Likely, TE, Giants vs. Cowboys (Sunday night)
Likely and John Harbaugh both moved from Baltimore to New York this offseason, and Harbaugh's offenses feed tight ends: the Ravens sent 30.5% of their targets to the position in 2024 and 29.9% in 2025. Likely was the No. 2 tight end in that system and now he is the No. 1. Dallas ranked 31st against the pass last year, the game's over/under is 48.5, and Malik Nabers is questionable in his return from knee surgery.
Foundry read: A TE1 in this matchup. If Nabers is limited or inactive, bump Likely up a tier.
Honorable mentions
Jaylen Warren & Rico Dowdle, RBs, Steelers vs. Falcons: Atlanta starts Cooper Rush with Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. both out, Pittsburgh is a 6.5-point favorite, and the Falcons ranked 26th against the run. A game script built for early-down work.
Juwan Johnson, TE, Saints at Lions: New Orleans is a 7-point underdog, rookie Jordyn Tyson is on injured reserve and tight end Oscar Delp is out. Johnson drew 102 targets last season, and trailing teams throw.