Week 3 is in the books. Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, DET) put up 41.4 PPR points, the biggest line of the week, 6.0 clear of Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Through Week 3 the value leaders are Josh Allen at quarterback, Jahmyr Gibbs at running back, Jaxon Smith-Njigba at receiver and Brock Bowers at tight end.
Below: the week's scoreboard, the season leaders by value over replacement, where each position's cliff sits, who is scoring above or below his usage, who is rising and falling and who you can set and forget.
The Week 3 scoreboard
The top 12 in Week 3: 4 quarterbacks, 2 running backs, 4 receivers and 2 tight ends. Twelve players cleared 25 points. The line to make this list was 25.6. Top of each position: QB Brock Purdy (31.3), RB Jahmyr Gibbs (41.4), WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (35.4) and TE Brock Bowers (27.6).
Week 3 scoreboard
Top 12 PPR scores
Player
Leaders through Week 3
Josh Allen leads quarterbacks at +13.3 points a game above replacement (31.3 a game over 3 games), 4.4 clear of Brock Purdy. Jahmyr Gibbs leads running backs at +22.3 points a game above replacement (32.8 a game over 3 games), 6.4 clear of Kenneth Walker III. Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads receivers at +24.0 points a game above replacement (34.7 a game over 3 games), 9.4 clear of Amon-Ra St. Brown. Brock Bowers leads tight ends at +14.7 points a game above replacement (27.6 a game over 1 game), 7.9 clear of Trey McBride.
Pos | Player | Team | PPG | VORP / game | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QB | Josh Allen | BUF | 31.3 | +13.32 | 3 |
QB | Brock Purdy | SF | 27.0 | +8.96 | 3 |
QB | Case Keenum | CHI | 24.5 | +6.49 | 1 |
RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | 32.8 | +22.33 | 3 |
RB | Kenneth Walker III | KC | 26.4 | +15.97 | 3 |
RB | Bijan Robinson | ATL | 25.9 | +15.47 | 3 |
WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | 34.7 | +24.04 | 3 |
WR | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | 25.3 | +14.62 | 3 |
WR | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | 23.6 | +12.98 | 3 |
TE | Brock Bowers | LV | 27.6 | +14.73 | 1 |
TE | Trey McBride | ARI | 19.7 | +6.83 | 3 |
TE | Travis Kelce | KC | 16.4 | +3.50 | 3 |
Value over replacement is points per game above the last startable player at the position, from actual game logs in PPR scoring.
Where the value cliffs are
Replacement level, the last startable player at each position, sits at 18.0 PPR points a game at quarterback, 10.4 at running back, 10.7 at receiver and 12.9 at tight end. The elite separate most at receiver: Jaxon Smith-Njigba is 24.0 a game above that line, more than any other position's leader. The steepest cliff is at receiver: from Jaxon Smith-Njigba at +24.0 (WR1) to Amon-Ra St. Brown at +14.6 (WR2), a drop of 9.4 points a game. That is the tier line to draft or trade around.
Pos | Replacement (pts / game) | Leader (VORP / game) | Steepest drop in the top 12 |
|---|---|---|---|
QB | 18.0 | Josh Allen (+13.3) | QB1 Josh Allen → QB2 Brock Purdy (−4.4) |
RB | 10.4 | Jahmyr Gibbs (+22.3) | RB1 Jahmyr Gibbs → RB2 Kenneth Walker III (−6.4) |
WR | 10.7 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+24.0) | WR1 Jaxon Smith-Njigba → WR2 Amon-Ra St. Brown (−9.4) |
TE | 12.9 | Brock Bowers (+14.7) | TE1 Brock Bowers → TE2 Trey McBride (−7.9) |
Scoring above and below the usage
Over a season, scoring drifts back toward usage: the players furthest above their expected points tend to cool off, and the ones furthest below tend to catch up.
Running hot: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, SEA) is scoring 12.3 points a game above what his usage says (22.2 expected, 34.5 actual); Zay Flowers (WR, BAL) is scoring 8.8 points a game above what his usage says (11.9 expected, 20.7 actual); Josh Allen (QB, BUF) is scoring 6.7 points a game above what his usage says (24.6 expected, 31.3 actual).
Owed points: Drake Maye (QB, NE) is scoring 10.9 points a game below what his usage says (18.1 expected, 7.2 actual); Malik Willis (QB, MIA) is scoring 7.1 points a game below what his usage says (20.2 expected, 13.1 actual); Emanuel Wilson (RB, SEA) is scoring 7.0 points a game below what his usage says (10.7 expected, 3.6 actual).
Expected vs actual fantasy points per game
The 50 most-fed players through Week 3
Hover a dot for the full read-out, or click to pin it. Focus the chart and use arrow keys to step through.
- Jahmyr Gibbs (DET · 3 games): Expected FP / game 28.6, Actual FP / game 32.8.
- Kenneth Walker III (KC · 3 games): Expected FP / game 26.6, Actual FP / game 26.4.
- Tyler Shough (NO · 3 games): Expected FP / game 24.8, Actual FP / game 23.1.
- Josh Allen (BUF · 3 games): Expected FP / game 24.6, Actual FP / game 31.3.
- Lamar Jackson (BAL · 3 games): Expected FP / game 24.2, Actual FP / game 20.1.
- Ashton Jeanty (LV · 3 games): Expected FP / game 24.1, Actual FP / game 18.4.
- Brock Bowers (LV · 1 game): Expected FP / game 23.8, Actual FP / game 27.6.
- Brock Purdy (SF · 3 games): Expected FP / game 23.4, Actual FP / game 27.
- Caleb Williams (CHI · 2 games): Expected FP / game 23.3, Actual FP / game 22.5.
- Bryce Young (CAR · 3 games): Expected FP / game 22.4, Actual FP / game 23.1.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET · 3 games): Expected FP / game 22.3, Actual FP / game 25.3.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA · 3 games): Expected FP / game 22.2, Actual FP / game 34.5.
- Chris Olave (NO · 3 games): Expected FP / game 21.5, Actual FP / game 23.5.
- C.J. Stroud (HOU · 3 games): Expected FP / game 21.3, Actual FP / game 15.1.
- Patrick Mahomes (KC · 3 games): Expected FP / game 20.9, Actual FP / game 22.2.
- Bijan Robinson (ATL · 3 games): Expected FP / game 20.7, Actual FP / game 25.9.
- Matthew Stafford (LA · 3 games): Expected FP / game 20.6, Actual FP / game 17.3.
- Derrick Henry (BAL · 3 games): Expected FP / game 20.5, Actual FP / game 25.
- Trey McBride (ARI · 3 games): Expected FP / game 20.2, Actual FP / game 19.7.
- Malik Willis (MIA · 3 games): Expected FP / game 20.2, Actual FP / game 13.1.
- Dak Prescott (DAL · 3 games): Expected FP / game 20.1, Actual FP / game 21.
- Geno Smith (NYJ · 3 games): Expected FP / game 20, Actual FP / game 17.
- Jonathan Taylor (IND · 3 games): Expected FP / game 19.9, Actual FP / game 21.2.
- Christian McCaffrey (SF · 3 games): Expected FP / game 19.9, Actual FP / game 19.3.
- Nico Collins (HOU · 1 game): Expected FP / game 19.9, Actual FP / game 21.2.
- Deshaun Watson (CLE · 3 games): Expected FP / game 19.5, Actual FP / game 18.
- Jordan Love (GB · 3 games): Expected FP / game 19.3, Actual FP / game 17.3.
- Jared Goff (DET · 3 games): Expected FP / game 19.2, Actual FP / game 21.9.
- Jalen Hurts (PHI · 3 games): Expected FP / game 19.2, Actual FP / game 17.8.
- D'Andre Swift (CHI · 3 games): Expected FP / game 18.9, Actual FP / game 18.7.
- Joe Burrow (CIN · 3 games): Expected FP / game 18.8, Actual FP / game 17.6.
- Christian Watson (GB · 3 games): Expected FP / game 18.5, Actual FP / game 23.1.
- Drake Maye (NE · 3 games): Expected FP / game 18.1, Actual FP / game 7.2.
- Case Keenum (CHI · 1 game): Expected FP / game 18, Actual FP / game 24.5.
- Baker Mayfield (TB · 3 games): Expected FP / game 17.8, Actual FP / game 11.7.
- Puka Nacua (LA · 1 game): Expected FP / game 17.8, Actual FP / game 12.4.
- Michael Wilson (ARI · 3 games): Expected FP / game 17.7, Actual FP / game 13.4.
- Jayden Daniels (WAS · 2 games): Expected FP / game 17.6, Actual FP / game 16.2.
- Javonte Williams (DAL · 3 games): Expected FP / game 17.3, Actual FP / game 16.8.
- Michael Penix Jr. (ATL · 1 game): Expected FP / game 17.2, Actual FP / game 14.
- CeeDee Lamb (DAL · 3 games): Expected FP / game 17.1, Actual FP / game 23.6.
- Davante Adams (LA · 3 games): Expected FP / game 17.1, Actual FP / game 21.9.
- Justin Herbert (LAC · 3 games): Expected FP / game 17.1, Actual FP / game 11.3.
- Matthew Golden (GB · 3 games): Expected FP / game 16.7, Actual FP / game 15.4.
- Aaron Rodgers (PIT · 3 games): Expected FP / game 16.7, Actual FP / game 13.1.
- Jacoby Brissett (ARI · 3 games): Expected FP / game 16.3, Actual FP / game 16.2.
- James Cook (BUF · 3 games): Expected FP / game 16.1, Actual FP / game 16.7.
- Trevor Lawrence (JAX · 3 games): Expected FP / game 16, Actual FP / game 17.3.
- Garrett Wilson (NYJ · 3 games): Expected FP / game 15.8, Actual FP / game 19.1.
- Drew Lock (SEA · 2 games): Expected FP / game 15.6, Actual FP / game 17.1.
Expected fantasy points are what a player’s targets, carries and situations would score for a league-average player. Below the line is scoring under the usage; above it is running hot.
Rising and falling
Comparing the last two weeks with the season average, Davante Adams is the biggest riser at 30.1 a game against a 21.9 average (+8.2), and Jalen Coker the biggest faller at 9.2 against 17.4 (−8.2). Two weeks is a lean, not a verdict; check the usage before you act on it.
Rising
Player | Last 2 | Season | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
Davante Adams WR · LA | 30.1 | 21.9 | +8.2 |
Ja'Marr Chase WR · CIN | 25.6 | 18.2 | +7.5 |
Matthew Stafford QB · LA | 23.9 | 17.3 | +6.6 |
George Kittle TE · SF | 22.1 | 15.8 | +6.3 |
Rashod Bateman WR · BAL | 13.8 | 9.2 | +4.6 |
Falling
Player | Last 2 | Season | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
Jalen Coker WR · CAR | 9.2 | 17.4 | −8.2 |
Justin Jefferson WR · MIN | 6.8 | 15.0 | −8.1 |
David Montgomery RB · HOU | 5.6 | 13.4 | −7.8 |
Isaiah Likely TE · NYG | 5.8 | 13.1 | −7.3 |
Ashton Jeanty RB · LV | 11.3 | 18.4 | −7.1 |
Set-and-forget, and swing plays
Among starters averaging 10 or more, D'Andre Swift, Ashton Jeanty and Kyren Williams bust the least, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jahmyr Gibbs and Josh Allen boom the most. Floor and ceiling are a bad week and a big week from the actual scores, not a projection.
Rarely bust
Player | PPG | Boom | Bust | Floor | Ceiling |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
D'Andre Swift RB · CHI | 18.7 | 33% | 0% | 10.8 | 32.4 |
Ashton Jeanty RB · LV | 18.4 | 33% | 0% | 10.3 | 32.7 |
Kyren Williams RB · LA | 17.7 | 33% | 0% | 15.5 | 21.8 |
Use it
Rank across positions on one scale with the VORP board, and reach for the position whose cliff comes first.
Buy the players scoring under their usage and sell the ones running hot on the expected points board.
Put any two to four players side by side, week by week, in Deep Research.
Every chart here lives on the analytics dashboard, filtered by season, scoring and position.