Week 4 is in the books. Tetairoa McMillan (WR, CAR) put up 45.2 PPR points, the biggest line of the week, 3.9 clear of CeeDee Lamb. Through Week 4 the value leaders are Josh Allen at quarterback, Jahmyr Gibbs at running back, Jaxon Smith-Njigba at receiver and Brock Bowers at tight end.
Below: the week's scoreboard, the season leaders by value over replacement, where each position's cliff sits, who is scoring above or below his usage, who is rising and falling and who you can set and forget.
The Week 4 scoreboard
The top 12 in Week 4: 6 running backs and 6 receivers. 16 players cleared 25 points. The line to make this list was 26.7. Top of each position: QB Drake Maye (26.2), RB Kyren Williams (36.7), WR Tetairoa McMillan (45.2) and TE T.J. Hockenson (24.9).
Week 4 scoreboard
Top 12 PPR scores
Player
Leaders through Week 4
Josh Allen leads quarterbacks at +9.0 points a game above replacement (28.1 a game over 4 games), 3.0 clear of Brock Purdy. Jahmyr Gibbs leads running backs at +17.2 points a game above replacement (29.0 a game over 4 games), ahead of Kenneth Walker III by 1.5. Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads receivers at +18.3 points a game above replacement (29.2 a game over 4 games), ahead of CeeDee Lamb by 1.1. Brock Bowers leads tight ends at +12.2 points a game above replacement (24.1 a game over 2 games), 6.8 clear of Trey McBride.
Pos | Player | Team | PPG | VORP / game | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QB | Josh Allen | BUF | 28.1 | +8.96 | 4 |
QB | Brock Purdy | SF | 25.1 | +5.96 | 4 |
QB | Case Keenum | CHI | 24.5 | +5.32 | 1 |
RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | 29.0 | +17.20 | 4 |
RB | Kenneth Walker III | KC | 27.5 | +15.73 | 4 |
RB | Bijan Robinson | ATL | 26.4 | +14.55 | 4 |
WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | 29.2 | +18.34 | 4 |
WR | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | 28.1 | +17.23 | 4 |
WR | Nico Collins | HOU | 26.0 | +15.18 | 2 |
TE | Brock Bowers | LV | 24.1 | +12.23 | 2 |
TE | Trey McBride | ARI | 17.3 | +5.43 | 4 |
TE | George Kittle | SF | 16.1 | +4.23 | 4 |
Value over replacement is points per game above the last startable player at the position, from actual game logs in PPR scoring.
Value cliffs
Replacement level, the last startable player at each position, sits at 19.2 PPR points a game at quarterback, 11.8 at running back, 10.8 at receiver and 11.9 at tight end. The elite separate most at receiver: Jaxon Smith-Njigba is 18.3 a game above that line, more than any other position's leader. The steepest cliff is at tight end: from Brock Bowers at +12.2 (TE1) to Trey McBride at +5.4 (TE2), a drop of 6.8 points a game. That is the tier line to draft or trade around.
Pos | Replacement (pts / game) | Leader (VORP / game) | Steepest drop in the top 12 |
|---|---|---|---|
QB | 19.2 | Josh Allen (+9.0) | QB1 Josh Allen → QB2 Brock Purdy (−3.0) |
RB | 11.8 | Jahmyr Gibbs (+17.2) | RB3 Bijan Robinson → RB4 Derrick Henry (−3.7) |
WR | 10.8 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+18.3) | WR3 Nico Collins → WR4 Amon-Ra St. Brown (−3.2) |
TE | 11.9 | Brock Bowers (+12.2) | TE1 Brock Bowers → TE2 Trey McBride (−6.8) |
Scoring above and below the usage
Over a season, scoring drifts back toward usage: the players furthest above their expected points tend to cool off, and the ones furthest below tend to catch up.
Running hot: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, SEA) is scoring 9.9 points a game above what his usage says (19.2 expected, 29.0 actual); Zay Flowers (WR, BAL) is scoring 9.0 points a game above what his usage says (13.4 expected, 22.4 actual); Nico Collins (WR, HOU) is scoring 7.1 points a game above what his usage says (18.9 expected, 26.0 actual).
Owed points: Drake Maye (QB, NE) is scoring 8.0 points a game below what his usage says (20.0 expected, 11.9 actual); Cooper Rush (QB, ATL) is scoring 6.7 points a game below what his usage says (9.3 expected, 2.6 actual); Justin Herbert (QB, LAC) is scoring 6.5 points a game below what his usage says (17.3 expected, 10.9 actual).
Expected vs actual fantasy points per game
The 50 most-fed players through Week 4
Hover a dot for the full read-out, or click to pin it. Focus the chart and use arrow keys to step through.
- Jahmyr Gibbs (DET · 4 games): Expected FP / game 27.2, Actual FP / game 28.8.
- Kenneth Walker III (KC · 4 games): Expected FP / game 24.8, Actual FP / game 27.5.
- Tyler Shough (NO · 4 games): Expected FP / game 23.1, Actual FP / game 21.3.
- Ashton Jeanty (LV · 4 games): Expected FP / game 22.7, Actual FP / game 18.5.
- Caleb Williams (CHI · 2 games): Expected FP / game 22.6, Actual FP / game 22.5.
- Josh Allen (BUF · 4 games): Expected FP / game 22.3, Actual FP / game 28.1.
- CeeDee Lamb (DAL · 4 games): Expected FP / game 22.2, Actual FP / game 28.
- Lamar Jackson (BAL · 4 games): Expected FP / game 22.2, Actual FP / game 19.8.
- Bryce Young (CAR · 4 games): Expected FP / game 22, Actual FP / game 22.7.
- Brock Purdy (SF · 4 games): Expected FP / game 21.9, Actual FP / game 25.1.
- C.J. Stroud (HOU · 4 games): Expected FP / game 21.8, Actual FP / game 17.1.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET · 4 games): Expected FP / game 21.6, Actual FP / game 22.8.
- Brock Bowers (LV · 2 games): Expected FP / game 21.6, Actual FP / game 24.1.
- Joe Burrow (CIN · 4 games): Expected FP / game 21.1, Actual FP / game 19.2.
- Jared Goff (DET · 4 games): Expected FP / game 20.9, Actual FP / game 21.5.
- Chris Olave (NO · 4 games): Expected FP / game 20.8, Actual FP / game 22.5.
- Christian McCaffrey (SF · 4 games): Expected FP / game 20.8, Actual FP / game 18.5.
- Matthew Stafford (LA · 4 games): Expected FP / game 20.7, Actual FP / game 15.4.
- Dak Prescott (DAL · 4 games): Expected FP / game 20.6, Actual FP / game 20.3.
- Derrick Henry (BAL · 4 games): Expected FP / game 20.2, Actual FP / game 22.7.
- Drake Maye (NE · 4 games): Expected FP / game 20, Actual FP / game 11.9.
- Bijan Robinson (ATL · 4 games): Expected FP / game 19.9, Actual FP / game 26.3.
- Trey McBride (ARI · 4 games): Expected FP / game 19.8, Actual FP / game 17.3.
- Javonte Williams (DAL · 4 games): Expected FP / game 19.6, Actual FP / game 20.4.
- Deshaun Watson (CLE · 4 games): Expected FP / game 19.6, Actual FP / game 16.7.
- Puka Nacua (LA · 2 games): Expected FP / game 19.4, Actual FP / game 20.1.
- Jonathan Taylor (IND · 4 games): Expected FP / game 19.3, Actual FP / game 21.6.
- Michael Wilson (ARI · 4 games): Expected FP / game 19.2, Actual FP / game 14.2.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA · 4 games): Expected FP / game 19.2, Actual FP / game 29.
- Patrick Mahomes (KC · 4 games): Expected FP / game 19, Actual FP / game 20.9.
- Nico Collins (HOU · 2 games): Expected FP / game 18.9, Actual FP / game 26.
- Kyren Williams (LA · 4 games): Expected FP / game 18.3, Actual FP / game 22.4.
- Tetairoa McMillan (CAR · 4 games): Expected FP / game 18.3, Actual FP / game 18.6.
- D'Andre Swift (CHI · 4 games): Expected FP / game 18.2, Actual FP / game 15.9.
- Case Keenum (CHI · 1 game): Expected FP / game 17.5, Actual FP / game 24.5.
- Justin Herbert (LAC · 4 games): Expected FP / game 17.3, Actual FP / game 10.9.
- Baker Mayfield (TB · 3 games): Expected FP / game 17.3, Actual FP / game 11.7.
- Aaron Rodgers (PIT · 4 games): Expected FP / game 17.2, Actual FP / game 15.3.
- Kirk Cousins (LV · 4 games): Expected FP / game 17.1, Actual FP / game 19.7.
- Jordan Love (GB · 4 games): Expected FP / game 17.1, Actual FP / game 16.2.
- Jayden Daniels (WAS · 2 games): Expected FP / game 17.1, Actual FP / game 16.2.
- Davante Adams (LA · 4 games): Expected FP / game 16.7, Actual FP / game 18.2.
- Geno Smith (NYJ · 4 games): Expected FP / game 16.6, Actual FP / game 14.9.
- Malik Willis (MIA · 4 games): Expected FP / game 16.6, Actual FP / game 10.4.
- Tee Higgins (CIN · 4 games): Expected FP / game 16.4, Actual FP / game 17.8.
- Jalen Hurts (PHI · 4 games): Expected FP / game 16.3, Actual FP / game 16.8.
- Chase Brown (CIN · 4 games): Expected FP / game 16.2, Actual FP / game 14.5.
- Matthew Golden (GB · 4 games): Expected FP / game 16.1, Actual FP / game 14.5.
- Sam LaPorta (DET · 4 games): Expected FP / game 15.9, Actual FP / game 14.2.
- Michael Penix Jr. (ATL · 2 games): Expected FP / game 15.7, Actual FP / game 13.4.
Expected fantasy points are what a player’s targets, carries and situations would score for a league-average player. Below the line is scoring under the usage; above it is running hot.
Rising and falling
Comparing the last two weeks with the season average, Drake London is the biggest riser at 21.5 a game against a 14.3 average (+7.2), and Josh Allen the biggest faller at 18.0 against 28.1 (−10.1). Two weeks is a lean, not a verdict; check the usage before you act on it.
Rising
Player | Last 2 | Season | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
Drake London WR · ATL | 21.5 | 14.3 | +7.2 |
Aaron Rodgers QB · PIT | 22.4 | 15.3 | +7.1 |
Michael Wilson WR · ARI | 21.2 | 14.2 | +7.0 |
Kyren Williams RB · LA | 29.3 | 22.4 | +6.8 |
Sam Darnold QB · SEA | 20.5 | 13.8 | +6.7 |
Falling
Player | Last 2 | Season | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
Josh Allen QB · BUF | 18.0 | 28.1 | −10.1 |
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET | 13.7 | 22.8 | −9.1 |
Dalton Kincaid TE · BUF | 2.8 | 11.5 | −8.8 |
Jalen Coker WR · CAR | 9.2 | 17.4 | −8.2 |
Justin Jefferson WR · MIN | 6.8 | 15.0 | −8.1 |
Set-and-forget, and swing plays
Among starters averaging 10 or more, Chris Olave, Kyren Williams and Jalen Hurts bust the least, and Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers and Ja'Marr Chase boom the most. Floor and ceiling are a bad week and a big week from the actual scores, not a projection.
Rarely bust
Player | PPG | Boom | Bust | Floor | Ceiling |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Olave WR · NO | 22.5 | 25% | 0% | 19.6 | 28.2 |
Kyren Williams RB · LA | 22.4 | 25% | 0% | 15.5 | 36.7 |
Jalen Hurts QB · PHI | 16.8 | 25% | 0% | 12.6 | 24.7 |
Boom or bust
Player | PPG | Boom | Bust | Floor | Ceiling |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Deshaun Watson QB · CLE | 16.7 | 50% | 25% | 12.9 | 20.3 |
Aaron Rodgers QB · PIT | 15.3 | 50% | 25% | 4.0 | 22.7 |
Ja'Marr Chase WR · CIN | 15.1 | 50% | 25% | 3.2 | 26.5 |
Use it
Rank across positions on one scale with the VORP board, and reach for the position whose cliff comes first.
Buy the players scoring under their usage and sell the ones running hot on the expected points board.
Put any two to four players side by side, week by week, in Deep Research.
Every chart here lives on the analytics dashboard, filtered by season, scoring and position.